In troubled times like today, Bed and Breakfast Innkeepers have an overwhelming feeling that the best way through this downturn (say recession!) is to put their room rates on sale. Isn’t that just what the retailers do at Christmas time to survive a bad season? The answer is that discounting in the travel business not only does not work, it creates a pattern of customer behavior that will last for years, even when times are better. Let’s look at the specifics.
Following 9/11, the Hotel Industry reacted to the basic loss of corporate business by deeply discounting their rates and putting large blocks of unused inventory on third-party web sites. The result was $50 a night rooms on sites like hotels.com which set up a huge expectation with consumers that this was the right price to pay for hotel rooms, no matter what the differences were in quality between each hotel. Many subsequent studies showed that the hotels basically killed their business for several years after the original reason for the discounting had gone away. The PAII Industry Study for 2002 and 2004 shows clearly that while occupancy at bed and breakfast and country inns decreased somewhat over the same period, rates did not go down significantly. Innkeepers knew the value of their product and held their rates. The result was that the Inn Industry basically avoided the meltdown that the Hotels suffered during that time.
By the end of 2007, rates for both Hotels and Inns were higher than in 2001, and occupancy rates had climbed back for the most part to 2000 levels (the best year to date in the Inn business). It is hard to tell where we will end up in 2008, but it clearly will not be a growth year. More important, where will we be in 2009?
Let’s put this into perspective. What would be the impact of your Inn business if revenues declined by say 10%? For an Inn grossing $400,000, that would mean a decrease in sales of $40,000. If the Gross Margin for that Inn (net cash flow/gross revenue) was an efficient 46%, then the net cash flow will also go down by 10%. In this example, the net cash flow would decrease by $18,400 from $184,000 to $165,600. The expenses also have to decrease, and there clearly can be cost reductions since many of the Inn’s expenses are variable and related to occupancy. In other words, as occupancy decreases, certain expenses like housekeeping, amenities and other costs related to occupancy levels will decrease as well. Added to this are the discretionary spending that can be reduced or deferred, all of which leads to the conclusion that even a 10% decrease in revenue will not result in a calamity for a well-run Inn business. It is more like something that needs to be weathered.
Most Innkeepers have a good sense of what the true expenses of operating the Inn are, and can find the ways to reduce costs. More important, most of your personal expenses seem to be interwoven in the Inn’s finances as well, providing a really sound way of reducing expenses. Knowing what is the real cost of the Inn gives you a better way of knowing how much you have to charge in rates to make an adequate return on investment (i.e. to pay the mortgage and have some for yourself) at any level of occupancy. Once you do this, you do not have to discount, you need only charge a fair price to achieve a fair rate of return on investment.
The real concern then remains this nagging feeling among Innkeepers that the only way out of a downturn is to discount. This should be avoided at any cost, because, as described above, once it is done, your guests will never again feel like paying your full rates. It will take many years to climb out of that hole. A better approach is to sell well priced packages and have value-added specials to supplement your rates. This has always worked well for our Industry, and will work again.
Finally, a word about cutting costs. Marketing and maintenance are the two areas that are easy to cut, but have the longest negative affect on your Inn business. This is the time to do what you can to increase marketing, because while the overall travel business may be decreasing, by great marketing you can stabilize or even increase your market share of the business that exists. Deferring maintenance is also something that comes back to bite you, since the cost of making repairs will always be more in the future if something is deferred.
The long and short is that you can favorably impact your results, even in bad economic times. Have faith that this too will pass, but in the interim, cut costs and market, market, market!
